000 AXNT20 KNHC 220540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 1N20W 1N35W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 14W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 40W-50W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF TONIGHT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 27N94W ENTERING NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE TONIGHT...AND FROM SW FL TO SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN AFTERNOON. FRESH TO MODERATE NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO IN SUPPORT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT BRINGING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN 80 KT SW JET CORE FROM WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER SURINAME EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF AREA AND A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS CAUSING TRADEWINDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO GALE FORCE. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MUCH OF THE BASIN... MORE CONCENTRATED OVER JAMAICA AND REGIONAL WATERS. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH SUN TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N55W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. THE SOUTHERNMOST EDGE OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIKELY SHIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N35W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER EASTERN ATLC AT 30N24W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 10N43W. STRONG SWLY FLOW WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS SEEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SFC TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS ALSO ANALYZED IN THAT AREA AND RUNS FROM 31N29W TO 23N24W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. $$ GR