000 AXNT20 KNHC 211134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 6S AND BETWEEN 15W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING MOST OF THE GULF REGION. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH AFFECTING THE SE GULF WATERS S OF 25N AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MULTI-LEVELS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG W-SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF. ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC HIGH WHICH HAS A PAIR OF 1025 MB CENTERS...ONE IS OVER NE FLORIDA AND THE OTHER ALONG THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER NEAR 33.5N85.5W. THESE CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE THEN THE HIGH WILL SLIDE NE OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A NEW COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW WATERS SAT EVENING FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT... EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH. GALE CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WWD ACROSS THE BASIN ON EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ALOFT...A RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION. SWLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN OVER CUBA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N60W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL CUBA WHERE IT IS O DISSIPATING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N36W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...A TROUGH/ RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC DISCUSSION AREA. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 31N52W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 28N28W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 24W-30W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 15N45W. STRONG SWLY FLOW IS SEEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED IN THAT AREA AND RUNS FROM 28N24W TO 32N28W. $$ GR