000
AXNT20 KNHC 202346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
16W EXTENDING TO 4S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 6N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF IN THE BASE OF A DEEP 
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC. AS OF 2100 UTC...THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO JUST INLAND OVER SE MEXICO PARALLELING THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE COAST. N OF THE FRONT TO 25N E OF 91W...A LAYER OF 
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS OBSERVED IN RESPONSE TO COLD 
AIR ADVECTION OVER RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS. ACROSS THE WRN 
GULF S OF 28N W OF 91W...OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL TO INLAND OVER 
ERN MEXICO WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS BANKING AGAINST THE 
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS. ACROSS THE N GULF...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
ARE PRESENT WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A 
1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER CENTRAL CUBA 
AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N81W WSW TO COZUMEL MEXICO AND 
ACROSS THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND 
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA 
WHICH IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WWD ACROSS THE BASIN ON 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THESE PATCHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO 
SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W TO 24N76W IN THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W. LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 36N41W AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING 
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC E OF 60W. A 
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A DISSIPATING SURFACE STATIONARY 
FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W AND EXTENDS TO 
27N39W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING INCREASED CLOUDINESS 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT S 
OF 11N BETWEEN 10W-30W...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN