000
AXNT20 KNHC 192349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 33W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 6W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF IN THE BASE OF A DEEP 
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W 25N95W SWD TO 
19N95W AND INLAND NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. FUNNELING OF THE COOLER 
AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN GULF THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS RESULTED IN 
A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 21N95W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 84W. S OF THE FRONT ACROSS 
THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
OBSERVED...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS IN PLACE. IN THE WAKE 
OF THE FRONT...STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS 
THE WRN GULF AND THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COOLER 
AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL 
AND E CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 30 KT...ARE FOUND ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE BASIN... 
THOUGH PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED 
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WWD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ON 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...MOST NOTABLY N OF 16N E OF 68W... 
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD WITH 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W AND EXTENDING SW TO MELBOURNE 
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING SOUTHWESTERLY 
GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BASED ON RECENT SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1025 MB 
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N53W. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A 
LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER TO THE E...A SURFACE 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS TO 
24N47W BECOMING A WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO NEAR BARBUDA. 
SURFACE CONFLUENCE NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES IS SUPPORTING INCREASED 
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THESE FRONTS. ACROSS THE E ATLC...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SURFACE RIDGE AND A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N29W IS 
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL ATLC...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
E OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN HALF 
OF THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN