000
AXNT20 KNHC 191025
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1000 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 21W THEN ALONG 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S39W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
AFRICA FROM 3N-6N EAST OF 13W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL S OF 1S BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 0900 
UTC...THE FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ENTERS THE 
GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N90W TO THE 
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER THEN INLAND OVER MEXICO. STRONG N WINDS TO 
25 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR DISPLAYS A LINE OF 
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE FRONT NE OF 
28N90W. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WITHIN 20 NM AHEAD...120 NM BEHIND THE 
FRONT. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW AROUND A 
HIGH IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE REGION SE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS MAINTAINING 
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS S OF 26N. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE 
MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
REACHES THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N 
OF 16N E OF 65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60NM OF A LINE FROM 16N65W TO 13N79W. 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND 
NICARAGUA S OF 14N. SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN SHALLOW 
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC 
MAINTAINS STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE NRN COAST 
OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER 
THE SE CONUS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY 
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT REACHING GALE FORCE N OF 29N AND W OF 74W LATER TODAY. 
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 48N48W AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
31N42W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 27N45W TO 22N51W WHERE IT BECOMES 
STATIONARY TO SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 100 NM 
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N62W BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS FILL IN THE W ATLC AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE. SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED IN THE EAST ATLC E OF 38W DUE TO A SFC 
RIDGE  THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 
24N32W. FLOW AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING 
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS 
MAINLY EAST OF 45W. 
 

$$
WADDINGTON