000 AXNT20 KNHC 171127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 43W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 11W-14W...FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 18W-21W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 28W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING ON-SHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N AND W OF 92W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 15-20 KT E WINDS ARE W OF 90W WHILE 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO ALONG 97W. 70-90 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS DUE TO RETURN FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W S OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 62W-72W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MORE ISOLATED PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N82W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 987 MB STORM LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 35N62W. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 30N58W 25N63W 20N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N26W TO 22N50W. A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE FROM EQ-24N BETWEEN 20W-48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N. A RIDGE IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-70W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE LOW N OF THE AREA TO MOVE NE TO 40N54W IN 24 HOURS AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO A 962 MB STORM WITH CONVECTION. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA NEAR 32N47W AND EXTEND S TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS. $$ FORMOSA