000 AXNT20 KNHC 162348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 16 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 1N14W 1N34W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 37W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS WRN CUBA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING E-SE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE USHERING IN A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST BRINGING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN U.S. PLAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE ERN HALF OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE EPAC NEAR 10N96W DOMINATES THE GULF PRODUCING STRONG W-NW FLOW AND ALSO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE S OF 26N INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS WRN CUBA EXTENDING TO NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING. THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM ANTIGUA S-SW TO THE NRN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THUS UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING USHERED IN ON MODERATE NE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN...MOST CONCENTRATED IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM ERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS WELL AS ERN HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N AND W OF A LINE FROM SAINT KITTS TO ARUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1002 MB GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31.5N69W. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO WRN CUBA AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD AS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A 998 MB STORM CENTER WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 23N56W TO 26N33W AND BEYOND 32N26W. THIS RIDGE IS GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT E-NE WINDS OVER THE TROPICS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 33W AND 47W. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE W ATLC W OF 45W DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BRANCH OF JET-STREAM CORE WINDS WHICH ORIGINATE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN ATLC E OF 25W WITH A CORE OF JET-STREAM WINDS UP TO 90 KT AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... ENTERING W AFRICA THROUGH SENEGAL. $$ HUFFMAN