000 AXNT20 KNHC 161127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N10W EQ20W EQ40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 10W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 25N80W 24N85W 24N98W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. 10-15 KT NE FLOW IS N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT S FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. A PATCH OF DENSE SEA FOG IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO ALONG 97W. A 130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO MOVE SE OUT OF THE GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW IN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 61W S OF 15N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 58W-64W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W...OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER VENEZUELA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 28N66W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BEYOND 32N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-78W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N33W PRODUCING STABLE WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N. A RIDGE IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE NW ATLANTIC TO MOVE NE TO 34N62W IN 24 HOURS AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO A 990 MB STORM WITH CONVECTION. $$ FORMOSA