000 AXNT20 KNHC 160553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N10W EQ20W EQ40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 8W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL FROM 5S-4N BETWEEN 47W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N84W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS W OF THE LOW TO NE MEXICO ALONG 25N90W 24N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 29N81W 27N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. 10-15 KT NE FLOW IS N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT S FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. A PATCH OF DENSE SEA FOG IS OVER THE SE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO ALONG 100W. A 130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO MOVE SE OUT OF THE GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW IN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 60W-62W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W...OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER VENEZUELA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 32N62W 29N70W 27N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-80W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N33W 27N48W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N32W PRODUCING STABLE WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N. A RIDGE IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N60W TO THE SOUTH BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE S OF 30N IN 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA