000
AXNT20 KNHC 151128
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 3N10W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 40W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 1E-2W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS ALSO FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 3W-6W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 23W-40W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA 
TO LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS ALONG 29N80W 30N92W 27N97W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N. 10-15 KT 
NE FLOW IS N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF 
THE FRONT. A PATCH OF DENSE SEA FOG IS OVER THE SE GULF AND 
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 24-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS FOG IS MIXING 
WITH SMOKE FROM FIRES S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO PRODUCE SMOG WITH 
LOW VISIBILITIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A 130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS INLAND 
OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE 
N GULF N OF 27N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE 
GULF N OF 27N AND E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO MOVE S IN 24 HOURS 
AND EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH 
SHOWERS.   
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED 
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA N OF 
15N AND E OF 73W...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...AND INLAND 
OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN 
TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS 
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL FLORIDA 
ALONG 32N70W 30N74W 29N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
26N63W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W AND 
EXTENDS SW TO 26N50W 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N32W 
PRODUCING STABLE WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
32N60W TO SOUTH FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT THE PRESENT FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA IN 24 HOURS.  

$$
FORMOSA