000
AXNT20 KNHC 150552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N1W 2N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 40W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF 
AFRICA ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 2E-1W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTH 
TEXAS ALONG 31N84W 29N86W 27N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N. 10-15 KT NE FLOW IS N OF THE 
FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. A PATCH 
OF SEA FOG IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM KEY WEST TO NAPLES FLORIDA 
FROM 24-26N BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW 
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A 130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET 
IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N AND E OF 90W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD 
FRONT TO DRIFT S IN 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 
TAMPICO MEXICO WITH SHOWERS.   
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED 
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA N OF 
15N AND E OF 72W...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...AND INLAND 
OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN 
T AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS 
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND N FLORIDA ALONG 
32N77W 30N82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 
70W-80W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N65W. A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W AND EXTENDS 
SW TO 27N50W 23N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N32W 
PRODUCING STABLE WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
32N56W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT THE PRESENT FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA IN 24 HOURS.  

$$
FORMOSA