000 AXNT20 KNHC 142312 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2W 3N15W 1N27W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 15W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 3N BETWEEN 28W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE N GULF. ALSO... A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NW GULF...EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 28N94W TO S TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 28N. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SW QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARE PRESENT N OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE S GULF... SUBSIDENCE...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING ENHANCED NEAR A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SE GULF FROM A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N70W...AND NEAR A SURFACE HIGH W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N83W. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW IS PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE HIGHS AND SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE S GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 17N E OF 67W. NE SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW AND E CARIBBEAN... WITH E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N81W TO 31N79W TO 32N79W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 79W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N70W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W TO 24N66W TO 24N61W AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 24N61W TO 28N52W TO 32N47W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF EACH OF THESE FRONTS. TO THE SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N50W TO 3N51W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. TO THE E...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AND A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N32W IS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E ATLC. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 6N2W TO 4N19W TO 1N35W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ COHEN