000
AXNT20 KNHC 131749
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 4N15W 1N25W ALONG THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 30W-35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 
3N-6N E OF 13W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS ACROSS SRN  
FLORIDA...ENTERING THE E GULF NEAR FORT MYERS AND EXTENDING TO 
NEAR 29N87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS INHIBITING 
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THE 
STABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA 
FOG TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N E OF 87W. VISIBILITIES 
IN THIS REGION MAY BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS. THE WARM FRONT 
THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE NW GULF HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH OVER 
SRN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. REMNANT SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA COASTLINES N OF 28N. THE SW GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE 
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS S OVER FLORIDA.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONFLUENT FLOW AROUND A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ. TRADE WINDS 15-20 KT 
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE 
IN THE ATLC SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS SLOWLY MOVING SE AND ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N61W EXTENDING TO WEST PALM BEACH WHERE 
IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER FLORIDA. A THIN LINE OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS 
SETTLED INTO THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER COVERS 
THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC AROUND A PAIR OF SFC HIGH 
PRESSURES...ONE CENTERED NEAR 25N57W AND THE SECOND NEAR 28N39W. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N 
BY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST ATLC. IN THE 
TROPICS...DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 8N18W IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
WADDINGTON