000
AXNT20 KNHC 131140
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W 
AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM NORTH AND 90 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 16W-23W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN WITH STRONG MIDDLE TO 
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES COVERS THE GULF REGION BETWEEN THE SRN 
EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A 
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS SRN FLORIDA INTO THE 
GULF S OF SARASOTA W TO 27N84W. FROM THAT POINT A WARM FRONT 
EXTENDS W TO 27N96W IN THE WRN GULF. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS 
THE NRN GULF. THE STRONG WESTERLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS 
PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
REGION THIS MORNING. S-SE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF W 
OF 87W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE MAINTAINING 
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE SE AND SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE 
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BY STRONG TRADE 
WIND FLOW...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND WITHIN 90 
NM OF A LINE FROM CARACAS VENEZUELA TO 16N80W IN THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC 
NEAR 28N47W SHIFTS EWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS SLOWLY MOVING SE AND ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING W-SW TO STUART FLORIDA AND 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF 
THE W ATLC WITH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE COLD 
FRONT AND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N47W. 
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING TRADE WIND FLOW TO DECREASE ACROSS THE 
WRN ATLC. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N39W TO 
19N43W. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 36W-42W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CENTERED FARTHER 
SE WHERE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD 
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC. FARTHER S 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER HIGH IS PRESENT NEAR 8N22W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS ENHANCING 
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN