000
AXNT20 KNHC 101805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 30W...TO 1S40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S47W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH
OF 3N BETWEEN 7W AND 50W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BROAD LARGE SCALE 
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS IN 
CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TEXAS 
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY AND REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW EXISTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO RIGHT NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUD LINES
WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM WESTERN GUYANA 
ALONG 60W TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA ALONG 66W. ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD 
CLUSTERS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS  ARE MOSTLY IN 
THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. TRINIDAD
REPORTED 1.12 INCHES OF RAIN FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC.
BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FROM FRENCH 
GUIANA WESTWARD AND NOW TO VENEZUELA EASILY FOR THE LAST
24 HOURS. BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STILL COVERS PUERTO RICO 
AT THIS TIME...NOW IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH AT THE END OF WHAT IS 
THE LAST COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS EXISTED ACROSS 
PUERTO RICO EASILY FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO 
REPORTED 1.24 INCHES OF RAIN FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 
FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W TO 14N76W TO 10N81W.
BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF THE LINE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO 80W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE 
AREA.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N60W. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 60W...AROUND A 1032 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS ALONG 34N21W TO 29N26W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS 
ALONG 33N17W TO 31N26W.

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