000
AXNT20 KNHC 101137
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
30W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 23W-27W. A 
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 
30W-37W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD ON S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF 
ARE OBSERVED N OF 26N W OF 88W. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND 
RESULTING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS 
EARLY WED. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH IN THE W ATLC 
EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SLY 
RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT COVERS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID-WEEK AS THE 
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IMPACTS THE ENTIRE GULF PROVIDING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE E OF 93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE 
AND INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN 
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND 
HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 
67W-75W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH N OF AREA AND LOWER 
PRES OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER CUBA AND 
JAMAICA. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NE BRAZIL EXTENDS A 
RIDGE NW PROVIDING THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH SW UPPER FLOW E OF 
77W.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...FROM NEAR 20N57W 
CONTINUING ALONG 20N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE N/CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. NW OF THE TROUGH...A 1032 MB 
SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES W OF 60W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS 
THE W ATLC...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SE 
BAHAMAS...GREATER ANTILLES...AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 32N51W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N60W. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS THE FRONT MOVES NE OF THE 
AREA. IN THE ERN ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 
31N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 25N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
ERN ATLC...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FROM N OF 
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 14N36W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 
30W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION. 

$$
HUFFMAN