000
AXNT20 KNHC 100546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 1N30W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 43W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 
3N27W TO 2S34W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW AND 
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH OVER E TEXAS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE 
IMMEDIATE NRN GULF W OF 88W. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND 
RESULTING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS 
EARLY WED. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH IN THE W ATLC 
EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SLY 
RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT COVERS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID-WEEK AS THE 
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 88W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA AND 
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN 
DOPPLER RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND 
HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N BETWEEN 
66W-74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH N OF AREA AND LOWER 
PRES OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NE BRAZIL 
EXTENDS A RIDGE NW PROVIDING THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH SW UPPER 
FLOW E OF 75W.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...ENTERING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N26W CONTINUING ALONG 27N35W 21N56W 
21N65W AND ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF 55W. W OF 55W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-22N EXTENDING TO 72W. NW OF THE 
TROUGH...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE W 
ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES W OF 63W. THIS SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE W ATLC...MAINTAINING A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...GREATER ANTILLES...AND 
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING SE INTO THE ATLC 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
32N58W AND EXTENDS TO 29N65W. THESE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY N OF 
27N BETWEEN 50W-62W. THE ERN ATLC IS COVERED BY A SURFACE RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM N OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS TO NEAR 14N36W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN 
DOMINATES THE REGION. 

$$
HUFFMAN