000 AXNT20 KNHC 092351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 09 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 1W-10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF W OF 92W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS ON WED. A SFC RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 20-25 KT COVERS THE REGION. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST...AND THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR OVER W PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-73W. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...UP TO 4 INCHES...HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH N OF AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NE BRAZIL EXTENDS A RIDGE NW ENVELOPING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SFC TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N30W AND CONTINUING ALONG 26N40W 24N50W22N60W AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...A 1029 MB SFC HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES W OF 66W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRES EXITING THE MID ATLC STATES...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BAHAMAS...GREATER ANTILLES...AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING S INTO THE ATLC AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 57W-66W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE JUST GRAZING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE EASTERN ATLC IS COVERED BY A RIDGE CIRCLING TWO SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS...A 1025 MB HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION. $$ WADDINGTON