000
AXNT20 KNHC 090553
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 6N10W IN WESTERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 8W AND 11W...FROM 1N
TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 20W AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO 25N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W...WITH UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND A RIDGE ALONG 95W. A DEVELOPING DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH TEXAS FROM WEST TEXAS TO CENTRAL 
TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER NEAR 29N82W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
21N80W IN BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A BROAD AND 
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW IS EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA 
TO HAITI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION COVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 11N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 92W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W 
FROM 14N TO 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
34N45W TO 30N60W TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHERN 
FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM 
PARTS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
OCEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 
27N37W TO 23N43W. A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 
4N TO 11N BETWEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE SURINAME COAST TO 11N BETWEEN 54W 
AND 60W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER AND POSSIBLY 
ALREADY-DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION IN SURINAME AND GUYANA HAVE 
BEEN WARMING COMPARATIVELY DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. A MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N32W 2N36W. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE 17N32W 2N36W 
TROUGH.

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MT