000
AXNT20 KNHC 082259
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W THEN ALONG THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W AND 40W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 6W-10W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 
11W-15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
15W-35W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER E 
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF BETWEEN 90W-100W. MOSTLY FAR WEATHER IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY 
RETURN SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 90W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...RETURN 
FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA OVER THE 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER S GEORGIA AND A 
1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY 
SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND W CUBA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-71W. MORE SHOWERS 
WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA W OF 82W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. 
EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 
UPPER AIR PATTERN.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N75W. A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 25N45W 21N59W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 40W. A 1026 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N14W. IN THE TROPICS... A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N41W 15N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W. A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 40W WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N. EXPECT... 
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 
5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

$$
FORMOSA