000
AXNT20 KNHC 072324
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 23W 
TO 1S30W EQ40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W.     
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY 
SURFACE FLOW HAS INCREASED TEMPERATURES TO THE 60'S AND 70'S 
ENDING THE COLD SNAP OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL PATCH OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W. EXPECT...VERY LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER N FLORIDA AND A 
1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY 
SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS OVER THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND W CUBA. MORE 
SHOWERS WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA W OF 82W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS ALSO OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N70W TO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N72W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E VENEZUELA 
NEAR 7N63W. SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W TO 
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT 
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W. A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 22N58W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N26W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N59W 15N59W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 56W-61W MOVING W. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 
45W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 45W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 60W WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 60W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
20N. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO 
RICO IN 24 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.  

$$
FORMOSA