000 AXNT20 KNHC 071747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 43W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 11W-14W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N/83W DOMINATES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND SE-S RETURN FLOW. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE GULF MOVING N UNDER THE PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF WHILE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN CUBA. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAIN STATES...GRADUALLY INCREASING ELY WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SLY WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W. SCATTEROMETER AND SFC DATA INDICATE NELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND THE MONA PASSAGE AS SEEN ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE N PORTION OF HISPANIOLA. A SECOND SFC TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN FRESH TRADES...LIES ALONG 69W S OF 15N. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL CONCENTRATED BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO AFFECTING EASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA LIKELY RELATED TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND/SPEED CONVERGENCE. THE SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER THIS REGION IS A RESULT OF STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS ARE FOUND OVER PARTS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW IN NATURE AND CAPPED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA. STRONG SWLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER S AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND/NOVA SCOTIA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N48W THEN CONTINUES SW TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. AT THIS POINT...IT BECOMES A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. A STRONG HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN CENTER OF 1035 MB OVER THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH ARE ADVECTING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. E OF THE FRONT...DEEP LAYERED UPPER RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH SITUATED NEAR 32N32W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ELONGATED TROUGH LIES SE OF THE RIDGE CROSSING BETWEEN THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N32W THEN CONTINUING SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS TO NEAR THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL. STRONG SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A PLUME OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF 36W. $$ GR