000
AXNT20 KNHC 070602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 6N9W IN LIBERIA TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 
23W...PARALLELING THE EQUATOR FROM 23W TO 32W...AND THEN MOVING
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 9W AND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL/FRENCH GUIANA COASTAL BORDER ALONG 51W/52W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 1E AND 2W. OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 22N17W 20N30W 16N42W 10N52W...MOVING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TWO 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERS NEAR 31N77W AND 30N80W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT GUIDES THE CURRENT ATLANTIC 
OCEAN COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA COMPLETELY. ONE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER 
TEXAS COAST TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. A SECOND MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE 
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W AS A STATIONARY FRONT...
CONTINUING AS A TROUGH FROM 19N69W TO 16N75W AND 12N81W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND APPEARS TO COVER PRETTY MUCH
THE WHOLE AREA. A COMPLETELY SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
65W/66W SOUTH OF 18N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W
AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 
50W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STRONG COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 25N60W. SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N 
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N60W
TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N7W IN MOROCCO TO 23N16W IN THE WESTERN 
SAHARA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N30W 14N40W 
3N47W. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS SUPPORTED BY THIS TROUGH NOW IS 
WELL INLAND IN AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 
AREA ALONG 17N49W 28N41W BEYOND 34N35W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N34W...TO THE EAST OF THE 32N51W 25N60W
COLD FRONT 

$$
MT