000
AXNT20 KNHC 060550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 7N10W IN LIBERIA TO 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
30N87W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE HAS 
SETTLED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST ARCTIC COLD FRONT 
TO HIT THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 90W...ON THE 
WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY
04 FEBRUARY AND NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STILL COVER THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N67W TO THE EASTERN TIP OF 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 15N75W CURVING TO THE PANAMA COAST 
NEAR 9N81W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 75W AND 77W ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS RANGING 
FROM 10 FT TO 14 FT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...TO THE WEST OF THE 
LINE FROM 20N64W TO 13N70W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SPILLS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO THE EAST OF THE 20N64W 13N70W LINE. A SLIGHT HINT OF AN 
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 18N AROUND
05/1845 UTC ON THE THEN-LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS SAME FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CROSSING 60W SOUTH OF 18N ON
THE LATEST SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 
60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STRONG COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 20N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 20N67W TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ROUGHLY 
ALONG 20W FROM 32N TO 26N21W. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SUPPORTED 
BY THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO TO THE EASTERN CANARY 
ISLANDS...TO 24N23W TO 25N30W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 20N33W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 15N45W...
TO THE COASTAL BORDER OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA NORTH OF
10N BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH AND THE TROUGH
WITH THE 32N56W 20N67W COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 33N41W...IN BETWEEN THE TWO COLD FRONTS.

$$
MT