000
AXNT20 KNHC 051752
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
37W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 16W-29W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE GULF IN 
THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED ON A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED 
OVER NRN ALABAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS LIMITING CLOUD 
COVER TO COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ERN GULF. 
EXPECT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NW GULF AS 
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN AND ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER 
HISPANIOLA EXTENDING SW TO 15N80W AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 
11N82W. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG 
THE NICARAGUA COAST. WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP 
BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A 1009 
MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA...N-NE WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE ALONG 
THE COLOMBIAN COAST E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE ERN CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO 
PERSIST WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD SUPPORTS A 
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W AND 
CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 
20N70W. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 29N 
WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC 
ARE COVERED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1033 MB HIGH 
NEAR 33N40W. ACROSS THE FAR NE ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
LOCATED OVER THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
SW TO 17N35W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CLIPS THE 
FAR NE ATLC FROM 32N13W TO 27N25W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WITHIN 90 NM 
E OF THE BOUNDARY.

$$
HUFFMAN