000
AXNT20 KNHC 050545
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 2N20W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 13W-17W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 20W-26W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF. 
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CUBA ENTERING 
THE GULF NEAR THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CONTINUING 
NW TO NEAR 23N92W. THIS FRONT IS DRY IN NATURE LEAVING ONLY COLD 
AIR STRATOCUMULUS IN ITS WAKE. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE KEEPING THE NRN GULF 
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. AT THE AFC...A HIGH OVER ARKANSAS EXTENDS A 
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO 
STRENGTHEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE 
W ATLC. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION ALONG THE 
WESTERN TIP OF HAITI AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 
12N83W.GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE TAIL END OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 12N-15N W OF 82W ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. A 
SECOND AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN 
COAST S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-76W. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...A COLD 
FRONT CROSSES CUBA AND ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 22N80W AND EXTENDS 
TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NORTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KT 
ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE IN THE 
CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN 
ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO 
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS IN THE W ATLC. AS OF 0300 
UTC...THE FIRST FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N61W AND 
CONTINUES SW TO HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
100 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE SECOND REINFORCING FRONT ENTERS THE 
W ATLC NEAR 30N68W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OVER 
CUBA NEAR 22N78W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC 
BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF 
29N WITHIN 300NM W OF THE REINFORCING FRONT. THE CENTRAL AND 
EAST ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SFC RIDGE CENTERED AROUND A 
1034 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 33N41W.

$$
WADDINGTON