000
AXNT20 KNHC 042337
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
27W-38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 12W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 22W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO THE EQUATOR W OF 44W INTO NE 
BRAZIL.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 
THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUING TO 
THE NW TO NEAR 26N95W. THE FRONT IS NOT MOIST LIKE ITS 
PREDECESSOR THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER N OF THE AREA CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS. THE FRONT IS 
SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US COAST. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND LIFT TO THE 
E...BUT DRY COOL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL PORTION OF A COLD FRONT IN THE ATLC CLIPS THE N CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN NEAR ERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE 
FRONT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ENTERS THE E COAST OF HONDURAS. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OFF THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA. MORE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE 
S CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE PANAMA COAST. 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN...BUT DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE DEEP CONVECTION IS INHIBITED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS TWO COLD 
FRONTS IN THE WRN ATLC. THE FIRST ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 31N62W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE ERN BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. 
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N72W 
AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS. STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE SECOND FRONT. ALSO GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT N OF 29N. SURFACE 
RIDGING CENTERED AROUND A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N39W 
IS DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE NE ATLC DUE TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

$$
WALTON/CANGIALOSI