000 AXNT20 KNHC 041756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 04 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N8W TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 10W AND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF BRAZIL ALONG 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT/THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT CURRENTLY PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N77W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS COAST JUST SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 30N106W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FT TO 12 FT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...AND THEN SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM 13 FT TO 19 FT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT MORE COLD ARCTIC AIR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. THE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WITH THE CURRENT COLD AIR IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAKE IT AT LEAST TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE ALREADY-EXISTING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. CLOUD BUILD-UPS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 69W FROM 11N TO 16N...PRODUCING SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENTS AND EARLIER SHOWERS...SINCE THEN DISSIPATED. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ONE CLUSTER IN WESTERN PANAMA...IN ONSHORE FLOW AND BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SOUTH OF 12N EAST OF 76W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FT TO 12 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALSO NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 82W ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FT TO 12 FT OUTSIDE THE REEFS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...THE EASTERN U.S.A....AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N67W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THIS IS THE LAST FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W. THE RAINFALL TOTAL FROM BERMUDA ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC WAS 0.76 INCHES. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N34W TO 24N43W TO 18N49W. THE PART OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 32N SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STORM CENTER WEST OF FRANCE. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 19N31W TO 13N34W 9N46W TO 6N56W JUST NORTH OF SURINAME. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RIDES RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE TWO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...AND IT COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND TROUGH/COLD FRONT COMBINATION. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT...AROUND A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N42W. $$ MT