000
AXNT20 KNHC 040455
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0430 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 1N35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL 
NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 1S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-22W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO THE AXIS W 
OF 30W INTO NE BRAZIL.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING ACROSS ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY AIR COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. AT THE SFC...A 
1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF BRINGING CLEAR SKIES 
ACROSS THE GULF. ONSHORE RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
IN THE SW GULF IS GENERATING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG 
THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF TAMPICO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN 
THE NRN GULF WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST 
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY THAT...AS OF 0300 UTC...CROSSES CUBA AND ENTERS THE 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N77W AND EXTENDS TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. 
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND 
THE FRONT. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN USHERING IN ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PREVENTING 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W ATLC. AS OF 0300 
UTC...THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N65W AND 
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N76W. W OF 
THIS FRONT...A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N69W ACROSS THE 
WESTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER CUBA NEAR 23N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE 
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 
THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 
29N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...A SURFACE 
TROUGH CONNECTED TO A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA IS IN THE NE ATLC 
EXTENDING SW FROM 31N11W TO 23N35W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE ATLC. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ARE COVERED BY A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED ON A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N41W.


$$
WADDINGTON