000
AXNT20 KNHC 031748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 4N12W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 41W-51W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO NRN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A POST-FRONTAL SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY...ANALYZED AS A 
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 
24N87W IN THE SE GULF. THINNING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS 
REMAIN ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE MULTI- 
LAYERED CLOUDINESS IS ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S 
OF 22N. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SRN 
LOUISIANA AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH 15-25 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW GULF. ALOFT...STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED N OF 23N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS 
CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TO ALONG COASTAL BELIZE AND 
INLAND ACROSS GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT NW OF THE 
FRONT. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TRADE WIND 
SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS 
PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS...TO 30 KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN 
COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO 
OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY TO THE 
W OF THE MAIN FRONT IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH AND ENTERS 
THE AREA NEAR 32N77W AND CONTINUES SW CROSSING FLORIDA OVER LAKE 
OCKEECHOBEE BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. 
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 
THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR WRN ATLC WATERS. A LINE OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NE ATLC DEPICT A COLD FRONT ENTERING 
THE AREA NEAR 32N17W SW TO 27N31W TURNING STATIONARY W TO 
26N46W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC 
ARE CONTROLLED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N46W.


$$
HUFFMAN