000
AXNT20 KNHC 031134
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 2N15W 1N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE AXIS TO 1N W OF 42W 
AND INLAND OVER BRAZIL.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE SW 
GULF...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST GULF...PRODUCTS OF A PAIR OF COLD 
FRONTS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE LAST 
DAY OR TWO. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FIRST...AND STRONGER...FRONT 
EXITED THE REGION AND NOW STRETCHES FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN. THE SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA AND 
ENTERS THE GULF JUST SOUTH OF FORT MYERS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 
23N86W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW GULF...STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GALE FORCES WINDS OBSERVED 
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N AND W OF 93W. EXPECT WINDS TO 
WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA LATER 
TODAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FRONT CROSSES CUBA AND ENTERS 
THE REGION NEAR 22N81W THEN STRETCHES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE 
NW OF THE FRONT. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE TRADE 
WIND SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS 
THE BASIN BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE ATLC AND A LOW OVER COLOMBIA. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 30 KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT MOVED 
ACROSS FLORIDA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 0900 
UTC...THE PRIMARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N75W 
AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. THE 
SECONDARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N78W AND CONTINUES SW 
CROSSING FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OCKEECHOBEE BEFORE ENTERING THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING 
DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE PREMIER FRONT. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS SURROUND THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N DURING 
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DEPICT A SFC 
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N25W TO 27N40W. OTHERWISE...A 
SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N47W 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.


$$
WADDINGTON