000
AXNT20 KNHC 021154
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 35W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 25W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BRAZIL COAST TO 1N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE SOUTH OF 3N 
BETWEEN 30W AND EASTERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING 
TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE ENERGY 
FOR A COLD FRONT THAT JUST BARELY HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST WATERS AT 02/0900 UTC...AND THEN SWINGS NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE LOW 
LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N60W
TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 
THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT BECOMES 
DISSIPATING AND IT CONTINUES FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 
EASTERN JAMAICA TOWARD THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/
EASTERN HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 
10N80W 17N70W BEYOND 17N60W. BROAD AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN 
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 25N54W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO 21N60W AND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 18N52W TO THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N40W BEYOND 32N34W. THE 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE 989 MB GALE CENTER TO THE 
PORTUGAL COAST SOUTH OF 40N CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT AN AREA OF 
CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A 
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N20W TO 7N47W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...AROUND THE
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N36W.

$$
MT