000
AXNT20 KNHC 011750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W TO THE EQUATOR AT 26W AND ALONG 
THE EQUATOR TO 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 27W-37W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N 
BETWEEN 38W-43W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 
85W ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF DUAL 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERS...ONE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR OCALA AND 
THE OTHER IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN GULF TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A RELATIVELY 
COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ALOFT...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES 
WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED ACROSS THE SE GULF AND BAY OF 
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SW HAITI TO OVER 
THE SRN COAST OF JAMAICA AND THEN INLAND OVER NRN NICARAGUA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM 
ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 14N 
WITH 15-20 KT N-NE WINDS OBSERVED BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT 
PASS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES ARE GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-74W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS 
ENHANCING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM 
GUADELOUPE TO NE COLOMBIA.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING SW 
TO 23N60W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 32N73W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS 
THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLC. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS NOTED 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 28N36W. ACROSS THE FAR NERN ATLC...A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT CLIPS 32N11W 30N18W TO 31N26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CANARY AND 
MADEIRA ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N43W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN ELONGATED AND NARROW UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SE WITH AXIS ALONG THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA 
TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N30W TO 12N43W.

$$
HUFFMAN