000 AXNT20 KNHC 011107 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 4N14W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO 2S30W 2S37W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ONLY PRETTY MUCH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REMAINS AFTER THE EXIT OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT NOW. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N77W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1027 MB CENTER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 10N82W 17N71W BEYOND 19N60W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST- TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO NOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN HAITI TO EASTERN JAMAICA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA...INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 68W FROM THE COAST TO 17N. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.54 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN CURACAO ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. MORE WESTWARD-MOVING LOW CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 58W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N60W...CLIPPING NORTHERN HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE-FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NORTH OF 29N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 65W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FT TO 16 FT. GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FT TO 11 FT. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 30W AND 75W OVER THE BAHAMAS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N42W. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO THE 27N42W CENTER TO 16N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N19W TO 17N34W TO 7N41W. LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 30W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...A 978 MB STORM CENTER...THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTUGAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LAST DEEP LAYER CYCLONE TO AFFECT FRANCE AND SPAIN CAUSED DEATH AND DESTRUCTION EXACTLY ONE WEEK AGO LAST WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS FROM THE 978 STORM LOW PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 31N21W BEYOND 32N24W. $$ MT