000 AXNT20 KNHC 010558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 4N15W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO 2S30W 2S37W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 31W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 6W AND 18W. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 1W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ONLY PRETTY MUCH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REMAINS AFTER THE EXIT OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT NOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N77W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N81W TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N87W TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL SECTIONS WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 10N82W 17N71W BEYOND 19N60W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST- TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO NOW PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO JAMAICA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA...ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 12N TO 18N. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. 1.54 INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN CURACAO ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. MORE WESTWARD-MOVING LOW CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 25N65W...ACROSS THE CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 69W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FT TO 16 FT. THE AREA OF DISORGANIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W REMAINS STILL...BECOMING MORE AND MORE INDISTINCT WITH TIME. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 30W AND 75W OVER THE BAHAMAS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N42W. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO THE 25N42W CENTER TO 16N43W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N19W TO 18N33W TO 8N41W. LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 30W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...A 979 MB STORM CENTER...THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH PORTUGAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LAST DEEP LAYER CYCLONE TO AFFECT FRANCE AND SPAIN CAUSED DEATH AND DESTRUCTION EXACTLY ONE WEEK AGO LAST WEEKEND. $$ MT