000 AXNT20 KNHC 312346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 22W TO 2S30W 3S408W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 22W-25W AND ALSO BETWEEN 30W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160-180 NM OF THE NE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 39W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE GULF REGION THIS EVENING COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONSISTING OF DUO 1026 MB CENTERS...ONE WHICH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE OTHER OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 28N89W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE GULF PARTICULARLY S OF 26N AND W OF 85W WITH A RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS ARE ALSO NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS A LOW PRES AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY MON. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. STRONG WINDS...LIKELY WITH GALE FORCE...WILL FOLLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH ERN CUBA THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED... 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BEHIND AND ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO N COAST OF HONDURAS EARLY SUN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO SWD TO NEAR ARUBA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND WESTERN VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL PANAMA. SW WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE ARE ADVECTING MID/UPPER MOISTURE FROM N SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE AREA NEAR 31N68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THESE FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLC. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N44W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SE WITH AXIS ALONG THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N30W TO 15N41W. SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS SEEN ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. $$ GR