000
AXNT20 KNHC 311753
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 18W TO 
2S23W 2S38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 
15W-29W AND ALSO BETWEEN 31W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 47W-51W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH 
A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. IT 
EXTENDS RIDGING EWD TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH 15-20 
KT NE WINDS OBSERVED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SE OF A LINE 
FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF S OF 26N 
WITH A RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW 
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT CROSSES ERN CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N78W 
THROUGH GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TO INLAND ACROSS SRN BELIZE NEAR 
17N88W. BEHIND AND ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN... 
20-25 KT N-NE WINDS WERE OBSERVED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM ACROSS PUERTO RICO SWD TO NEAR CURACAO. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 65W-71W AND THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING 
ENHANCED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM NERN VENEZUELA TO ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. 
ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN US SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS 
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W 
EXTENDING SW TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NW OF 
THE MAIN FRONT NEAR 32N71W AND EXTENDS TO 30N76W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY 
THESE FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLC. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS 
NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE 1029 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N44W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SE WITH AXIS ALONG THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA 
TO NEAR 13N38W.

$$
HUFFMAN