000
AXNT20 KNHC 311137
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 25W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 4N EAST OF 40W. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST 47W AND 
50W...AND FROM 1S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W AND 6W..FROM 1.5S
TO 1S BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...AND FROM 1.5S TO 2S BETWEEN 19W
AND 21W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 35W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT NOW IS SWINGING 
THROUGH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE/THE SOUTHERNMOST PART 
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
A SEPARATED PART OF A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 
WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWESTWARD TO 
25N100W IN MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF 
WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD 
BAND WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MARKS THE COLD FRONT IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
LINE THROUGH 32N68W 27N72W 22N80W IN CENTRAL CUBA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 
DISORGANIZED CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR 15N81W JUST OFF THE 
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 66W FROM 10N TO 20N...DRIFTING WESTWARD...PASSING
ON TOP OF THE EASTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 
70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IN THE SAME AREA MAY BE 
HELPING ANY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 11N83W 18N70W 21N62W 
20N60W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
BETWEEN 30W AND 75W OVER THE BAHAMAS. WEAK AND DISORGANIZED 
CUT-OFF CYCLONIC FLOW IS DISTURBING THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER IS NEAR 27N43W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 24N
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 62W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 
31N11W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N38W TO 29N52W 
TO 27N57W 24N63W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED TO A LINE THROUGH
CENTRAL MOROCCO NEAR 33N5W TO 25N17W TO 18N35W TO 10N41W. THE
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO REMAINS INLAND
FROM MOROCCO TO MAURITANIA.

$$
MT