000 AXNT20 KNHC 301740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS PRETTY ACTIVE TODAY. IT IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 25W THEN EXTENDING ALONG 1S35W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130-140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W-40W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE AXIS NEAR 1.5N12W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 1500 UTC...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 23N90W ENTERING MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED NEAR 22N94W IS ALREADY REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 KT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ADVECTED BY N-NE 20 TO 35 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN GULF. COLD AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS DEPICTED BY A RATHER UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUDS COVER AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED THERE. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE SE GULF. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM MAXIMUM OVER THE SE CONUS. THE FRONT WILL GET A SECOND PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF MOVES SE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DRY AIR AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF REGION MON...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NLY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W S OF 20N. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER N SOUTH AMERICA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER PATCH OF MOISTURE IS NEAR THE N END OF THE TROUGH LIKELY RELATED TO AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED ELY WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE... GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...TYPICAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N74W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE SATURDAY. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE CONUS REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A LINE OF TSTMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE IS APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SW FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N33W WHICH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SWATH OF 20-25 KT ELY WINDS IS NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH THAT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA CROSSING JUST EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. ALOFT...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE FAR NW AREA. A RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED ON AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR 26N47W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO NEAR 20N30W THEN WWD TO NEAR 17N42W. SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. WLY WINDS DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS. $$ GR