000
AXNT20 KNHC 292334
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W EQ30W EQ40W 2N50W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 14W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-53W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N80W 24N90W. A STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES TO S MEXICO ALONG 22N94W 17N94W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF. 15-20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT S 
WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S N OF THE 
FRONT AND IN THE 70'S S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N 
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. A 
COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE GULF. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE 
OVER THE SW GULF. A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM WILL ALSO BE ALOFT OVER 
THE N GULF N OF 25N IN 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES 
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-85W. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT OVER TRINIDAD WHERE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT...FRONTAL RAIN AND SHOWERS 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS. ALSO 
EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND E VENEZUELA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONT. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N44W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE 
ATLANTIC E OF 60W TO AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
BETWEEN 40W-60W. ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 40W. EXPECT..THE COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS AND BE FROM 32N70W TO 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. 

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FORMOSA