000
AXNT20 KNHC 282237
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2215 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
40W AND TO N BRAZIL AT 1S45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-38W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 31N85W 25N94W 20N96W 22N100W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 15-20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 
10-15 KT S WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 
50'S N OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 70'S S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N 
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO HONDURAS. MORE SHOWERS 
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE 
AREA. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A 
1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N56W. A 996 
MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N30W 
AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW TO 32N40W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N14W. AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC HAS ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT...A STRONG COLD 
FRONT WILL TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS FROM 32N76W TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. 

$$
FORMOSA