000
AXNT20 KNHC 261823 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N3W 2N12W 1N30W 2N43W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-17W WITH CLUSTERS OF 
SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-9W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND 
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 47W-58W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E 
PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF 
UPPER W TO NW FLOW WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER 
AIR. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY LIFTING N OVER THE 
NW GULF ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO 
THE APALACHEE BAY THEN JUST OFF SHORE OF LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS 
COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT E OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
FROM THE W ATLC S OF THE FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF WITH A 1025 MB HIGH ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 
DAYTONA BEACH WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND MILD CONDITIONS 
EXISTING S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE 
NW PART TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING.
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE 
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED 
BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS CAPPING 
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE LOW LEVELS. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE 
TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA/W JAMAICA TO 
NEAR 13N81W IS BEING DRIVEN W BY LOW/MID LEVEL NE FLOW. PATCHES 
OF LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE TROUGH 
TO OVER CUBA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF 
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OVER THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF W 
PANAMA/COSTA RICA/E NICARAGUA. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA 
THEN WEAKEN AGAIN ON FRI AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO 
THE NW REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE REMAINS QUIET TODAY. OVER THE W 
ATLC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED FROM BERMUDA INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY N 
OF THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
24N66W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER E 
CUBA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SE AND 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS W OF THE TROUGH TO 78W. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 28N52W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 
NEAR 14N70W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N49W TO 
27N57W DRIFTING EASTWARD. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NW TO NEAR 30N40W. 
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR 
31N32W IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL ATLC.
 
$$
WALLACE