000
AXNT20 KNHC 260529
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N23W 0N32W 1S47W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 5W-14W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY LIFTING N OVER THE FAR NRN GULF 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS. WHILE NIGHT CHANNEL SAT 
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG 
AND N OF THE FRONT...DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY DETECTING A FEW 
EMBEDDED SHOWERS OFF THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. FAIR AND 
MILD CONDITIONS EXIST S OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED 
TO LIFT N OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT 
ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR ELY 15-20 KT WINDS SPREADING 
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALOFT...A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IS 
PERTURBING THE WLY ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY 
MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE IN ITS VICINITY. 
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TO 14N80W IS BEING DRIVEN W BY LOW-MID LEVEL NE FLOW. 
PATCHY CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W OF THE TROUGH 
LINE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY 
PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW TOPPED RAINFALL OVER AND E/NE OF THE 
MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  ANOTHER WEAK 
TROUGH IS ALONG 67W S OF 15N MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY W IN THE 
TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY ALSO PRODUCING A FEW 
SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 
AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS CAPPING THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW ACTIVITY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES 
STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE IS QUIET TONIGHT. OVER THE WRN 
ATLC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED FROM BERMUDA TO 
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH QSCAT DATA CONFIRMING THE FORMATION OF 
A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 32N74W. THERE ARE MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER 
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY S OF 32N. THE REMNANTS OF 
AN OLD FRONT IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS AND FARTHER NE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 65W-67W. A HIGHLY 
DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLC AND A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 37W...IS PRODUCING A 
BROKEN PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE WX EFFECTS 
AT THE SFC. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN SAHARAN AFRICA IS 
PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND. 
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES NEAR 30N32W IS 
PRODUCING FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.
 
$$
CANGIALOSI