000 AXNT20 KNHC 250547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N4W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND INTO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 42W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN US SEABOARD WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1019 MB LOW NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA CONTINUING JUST S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 26N95W AND INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE FRONT WITH MAINLY OVERCAST LOW STRATUS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED ON A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF SARASOTA FLORIDA. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE W ATLC DIPS ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN E OF HISPANIOLA AND SUPPORTS A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW TO 14N74W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 69W-76W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N50W PROVIDING NW UPPER FLOW OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NRN COLOMBIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE/STRONG E-NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N54W SW ALONG 28N60W TO 23N66W THEN CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 17N50W COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 45W-57W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N21W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH SW TO 6N28W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 40W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N65W THROUGH THE NRN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND AND LARGER SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND OVER AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 30N32W. $$ HUFFMAN