000
AXNT20 KNHC 242321
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 43W AND INTO BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 15W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 
47W-54W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
TO SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ALONG 31N86W 29N91W 26N97W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF 
THE FRONT WHILE 5 KT S WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES 
ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES N OF THE FRONT. IN CONTRAST TEMPERATURES 
OVER S FLORIDA ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA AT 27N84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF 
A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY WESTERLY 
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE 
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND FLORIDA WHERE CONSIDERABLE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO RETROGRADE 
SLIGHTLY N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E HISPANIOLA 
NEAR 20N70W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH ESPECIALLY OVER E 
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N54W 
TO NEAR 25N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR E HISPANIOLA 
AT 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND 
TROUGH. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N32W. AREA 
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 
30W-50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 15N52W. A LARGE RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-45W. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
AT 17N22W. EXPECT...THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO REMAIN 
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  

$$
FORMOSA