000
AXNT20 KNHC 241136
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N1W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 30W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 
46W-51W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. A 
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED INLAND ACROSS SRN TEXAS AND WILL MOVE OFF 
THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
PRECEDE THE FRONT NW OF A LINE FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM THE 
BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND 
LIFT N OF THE AREA SUN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK SHORTWAVE 
TROUGHING RESIDES ACROSS THE WRN GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
BEING TRANSPORTED BY SWLY WINDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE N GULF WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR DOMINATE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY 
FRONT ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N70W TO NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 
11N75W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE ABUNDANT 
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE 
ADJACENT COASTAL CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-73W. ALSO 
OF NOTE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER 
BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
14N-19N BETWEEN 84W-91W. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE USHERED IN 
ON EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE MOST 
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 
60W-63W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE 
VENEZUELA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE 
PREVAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA  
EXTENDS ENE TO BERMUDA. ANOTHER 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 30N30W AND DOMINATES THE EAST AND CENTRAL ATLC E 
OF 55W PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS 
OF UP TO 25 KT. IN BETWEEN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE 
W ATLC AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA 
NEAR 32N54W THROUGH 25N64W TO ERN HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...A CLOSED 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 15N51W. AN UPPER-LEVEL 
RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 12N40W NWD TO 22N38W AND THEN NE TO THE 
MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS. SE OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS 
SPINNING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N21W.

$$
HUFFMAN