000 AXNT20 KNHC 231156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 6N9W IN LIBERIA TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...1S30W 2S40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE SOUTH OF 4N ALONG 11W/12W...ALONG 19W...BETWEEN 20W AND 35W...NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W/46W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 3N51W JUST EAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE CURRENT STILL-SOMEWHAT-COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO STATES ONLY 48 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED MOSTLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ONLY. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE STRETCHED OUT/ELONGATED. WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE ORIGINAL TROUGH APPEARS TO PASS THROUGH 32N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA TO CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N59W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N69W TO A FLORIDA 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N81W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FROM 48 HOURS AGO COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY NORTH OF 18N WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 16N82W 17N85W 18N88W... AS SEEN IN THE CYCLONICALLY-SWIRLING BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGES. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND A RIDGE ALONG 66W/67W. THE RIDGE REALLY HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 14N53W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS NOT MOVED MUCH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N68W 15N69W 11N70W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 67W AND 71W SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED BY THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEATHER BUREAU WITH THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT NOW REACHES PUERTO RICO FOR 21 JANUARY RANGE FROM 2 INCHES TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEING IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE CURRENT STILL-SOMEWHAT-COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO STATES ONLY 48 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED MOSTLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ONLY. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE STRETCHED OUT/ELONGATED. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W IS MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY. WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE ORIGINAL TROUGH APPEARS TO PASS THROUGH 32N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA TO CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N60W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 32N50W 27N60W 23N63W TO 20N66W. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N59W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N69W TO A FLORIDA 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N81W. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 32N14W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N29W TO 27N45W TO 26N54W TO 20N55W TO 15N63W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N52W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N TO 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. THE WESTERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM CENTRAL MAURITANIA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N23W TO 15N31W 18N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N39W BEYOND 32N31W. $$ MT