000
AXNT20 KNHC 230548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 6N9W IN LIBERIA TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...1S30W 2W40W
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 6N TO 3S.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 56W...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT 
THE CURRENT STILL-SOMEWHAT-COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO STATES ONLY 48 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED MOSTLY INTO THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN ONLY. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE 
AND MORE STRETCHED OUT/ELONGATED. WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE 
ORIGINAL TROUGH APPEARS TO PASS THROUGH 32N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA 
TO CENTRAL CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N80W TO A SECOND 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N84W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
21N97W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED
THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FROM 48 HOURS AGO THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY NORTH OF 19N WEST OF THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 16N82W 18N84W 18N87W...
AS SEEN IN THE CYCLONICALLY-SWIRLING BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGES. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM 
COLOMBIA NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND
A RIDGE ALONG 66W/67W. THE RIDGE REALLY HAS NOT MOVED MUCH
DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 14N52W
CYCLONIC CENTER HAS NOT MOVED MUCH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
17N68W 15N69W 12N69W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N68W
15N69W 13N70W. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED BY THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WEATHER BUREAU WITH THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT
THAT NOW REACHES PUERTO RICO FOR 21 JANUARY RANGE FROM 2 INCHES
TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEING IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 56W...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT 
THE CURRENT STILL-SOMEWHAT-COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO STATES ONLY 48 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED MOSTLY INTO THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN ONLY. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE 
AND MORE STRETCHED OUT/ELONGATED. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W IS 
MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY. WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE ORIGINAL TROUGH 
APPEARS TO PASS THROUGH 32N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO CENTRAL CUBA. 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 31N52W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM 31N52W TO 26N60W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO 
RICO. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
LINE PASSING THROUGH 32N51W 28N58W 24N62W TO PUERTO RICO. A 
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 
32N60W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N69W TO A 1026 
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N80W TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N84W. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE 
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 31N14W TO A 1033 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N28W TO 27N43W TO 26N53W TO 20N55W TO 
14N60W AT THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N52W. BROAD 
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N TO 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 
60W. THE WESTERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 
FROM CENTRAL MAURITANIA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N22W TO 18N35W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 26N36W BEYOND 32N31W.

$$
MT