000 AXNT20 KNHC 221153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 5N3W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE IVORY COAST TO 3N10W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 1S30W 1S40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 56W... A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH STILL SUPPORTS THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT TO VISIT THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN WATERS AT THIS TIME. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N60W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE 2008-2009 WINTER SEASON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN FLORIDA AND OTHER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. HAVE BEEN POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER EVEN THAN THE TEMPERATURES OF 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PASS THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N60W TO 22N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N65W 25N62W 27N60W BEYOND 32N57W. GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND A RIDGE ALONG 65W/66W. THE RIDGE REALLY IS NOT MOVING MUCH DUE TO THE FACT THAT ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ADVANCING WESTWARD AT A SLOW RATE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT NOW REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IS AROUND A 15N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. OUR ANALYSIS OF THE FRONTAL SCENARIO HAS CHANGED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE COLD FRONT NOW CUTS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CURVING TO 17N80W 16N81W AND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED NOW ALONG 16N73W 13N77W TO THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 78W/79W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY... REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SAME AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS NOT EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 56W... A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 32N15W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N28W TO 28N43W TO 25N50W TO 22N60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N52W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 45W AND 62W. THIS CYCLONE IS MOVING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 33W/34W. THE WESTERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM NORTHERN MAURITANIA TO 18N29W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT