000 AXNT20 KNHC 220545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 5N4W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE IVORY COAST TO 3N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 1S30W 1S40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 11W AND 12W...WITHIN 30 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 35W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 35W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W... A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH STILL SUPPORTS THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT TO VISIT THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN WATERS AT THIS TIME. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PASSING THROUGH 32N63W...ACROSS THE TURKS ISLANDS TO WESTERN HAITI...DISSIPATING AND CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 11N82W. THIS COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE 2008-2009 WINTER SEASON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER EVEN THAN THE TEMPERATURES OF 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PASS THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N64W 30N60W BEYOND 32N58W. GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND A RIDGE ALONG 65W/66W. THE RIDGE REALLY IS NOT MOVING MUCH DUE TO THE FACT THAT ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ADVANCING WESTWARD AT A SLOW RATE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW NOW REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...NOW DISSIPATING...CUTS ACROSS WESTERN HAITI TO 11N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 31N17W TO A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N31W TO 29N43W TO 26N51W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 9N TO 22N. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 45W AND 62W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 36W. THE WESTERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM INTERIOR AFRICA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT